Going Against the Conventional Investment Wisdom

>experts say you can’t successfully time the
First of all, I want to give everyone the disclaimermarket. I believe this is true when using the strictest
that I am not a registered financial advisor and Idefinition of the term, “market timing.”
don’t play one on TV. Therefore, I cannotHowever, I have been able to trade successfully with
legally provide financial advice and I will not do so.the short-term momentum already established by the
This is for informational purposes only and I’mmarket. Why no-load market index funds instead of
not recommending any of my personal investmentindividual stocks or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
strategies to anyone else. Now, with that being said,that mirror various market indexes? Because no-load
I will outline some techniques I use for my personalmarket index funds allow leveraging and short selling
investment strategy, without going into a whole lotwithout the need for a margin account. Also, some
of specifics. I generally go against the conventionalof these funds allow twice-daily trading (which is
investment wisdom that you are accustomed toimportant for exiting early on bad days). In addition,
hearing, although I do use both a conservative and athe fund company I use doesn’t charge
not-so-conservative strategy.redemption fees for actively trading its funds. Most
Most financial advisors put a great deal of emphasisfund companies, even those that specialize in no-load
on diversification. While this is probably appropriatefunds, charge these fees.
for most people, I personally don’t buy it. TheLike I said at the beginning, I’m not going into
idea is that it limits risk. While it does indeed limit risk,great detail, especially about my more aggressive
for me it also limits my upside potential way toostrategy. However, I should define some terms so all
much. Therefore, I basically disregard the wholeof this will make more sense to those who are
concept. Most advisors will encourage investing fornovices in the world of investments.
the long term. This strategy is generally successful inWhat is leveraging? Leveraging, in this context, is the
building wealth, but unfortunately for me, itability to buy shares of a stock or mutual fund and
wouldn’t until after I’m old or dead. Irealize a multiple of its gain or loss during the time
invest for the short and intermediate terms.you hold it. For example, if you buy a fund leveraged
I also do not buy or trade individual stocks. Instead, Iat 2 times a given stock index and that fund goes up
buy and trade no-load mutual funds, including index20%, you realize a 40% gain. However, if it goes
funds. Even with the use of a deep-discount broker,down 20%, you incur a 40% loss. With individual
commissions from trading individual stocks will add upstocks or ETFs, you need a margin account to do
and cut into my profits. True no-load mutual fundsthis. With a margin account, your broker is loaning
don’t cost me anything to buy or sell. Besides,you money on “margin” at a rather high rate of
owning shares in a mutual fund is like owning sharesinterest to cover the leveraged (or extra) amount.
of a lot of different stocks at one time withoutObviously, this could be very risky and costly.
having to actually buy any of those stocks. InsteadHowever, there are some funds that have this
of buying individual stocks, I am buying classes orleveraging built in at no cost to you. These funds
groups of stocks. I also don’t have to worryautomatically give you one-and-a-half or two times
about which stocks to buy or sell, as that job isthe gain or loss of a given stock index.
being taken care of by the fund managers.What is short selling? Short selling is when you sell a
Now, let’s talk about some guidelines I usestock (that you don’t already own)
specifically for my conservative strategy. I only buyimmediately at its current market price while agreeing
funds that have earned a "Five-Star" rating fromto buy it at whatever the market price will be at a
Morningstar ( They must also have a Morningstar riskfixed point in the near future. In other words, you
rating of "low", "below average", or "average." Inare betting that the stock will be going down, so you
addition, they must have a Morningstar return ratingcan buy it for less than you sold it for. Have you
of "above average" or "high." Also, they must beever heard anyone say “don’t sell me
long-term winners, i.e., near the top of theirshort”? Well, this is where that term came from.
categories in five-year and/or ten-year performance.Selling someone short is tantamount to treating them
I also require them to be "Lipper Leaders", aslike a bad stock that you believe is going down. Yes,
deemed by Lipper ( in the categories of "Returns",it’s backwards of the normal process of
"Capital Preservation", and "Consistency."buying and selling stocks. As with leveraging, you
In my mind, consistency is just as important as highneed a margin account to do this for individual stocks
overall return and capital preservation. An inconsistentor ETFs. Your broker loans you money on
or volatile fund can cause problems for short and“margin” (actually buying the stock temporarily),
intermediate term investors, even if its longer termso you can sell a stock that you don’t own
performance is excellent. Here’s the problem:yet.
Let’s say a fund that I invested in went downOnce again, however, the funds I use have this short
50% in the first year I owned it. It would have to goselling mechanism already built in to them at no cost
up a whopping 100% the next year for me to breakto you. For example, you can buy a fund that gives
even after two years. However, let’s say ityou the inverse performance of the Nasdaq-100
went down 25% after the first year. In that case,Index. When that index goes up 10%, the fund goes
the fund would only have to go up 33% in thedown 10%; conversely, when that index goes down
second year for me to break even. A 20% drop in10%, the fund goes up 10%. There are even funds
the first year would need only a 25% increase in thewith leveraging and short selling built in to them, at no
second year to break even; a 15% drop would needcost to you! For example, there is an available fund
only an 18% increase; a 10% drop would require onlythat goes up 20% when the Nasdaq-100 Index goes
an 11% increase; and so on. Therefore, I stick withdown 10%. Of course, that same fund goes down
funds that have never gone down more than20% when then the Nasdaq-100 Index goes up 10%.
10-20% in any one year. I prefer funds that haveAs you can probably imagine, these funds can be
never had a losing year, but those are very hard topowerful tools for profit-making for those who know
find.how to use them, but can be highly dangerous for
What about my more aggressive strategy? This isthose who do not.
the one that I’m using more and more oftenFor more information about any or all of these
and is becoming more profitable, although I probablyconcepts and to find out what kind of investment is
couldn’t quit my job and make a living off ofright for you, contact your financial advisor and/or do
it just yet. Is it going to make me rich? Probably not.your own research. Hopefully, I have provided some
However, I hope it will eventually put me in a financialfood for thought as well as several resources that
position to retire early. This strategy involves activelymight be helpful to you when doing your own
trading various no-load market index funds. Theresearch.