First Find Out What it is Worth

Let's figure out what something is worth before weIn it, in 1999, he predicted the coming stock market
buy it. This is not a unique concept. You do it all thecrash. He also predicted the real estate crash. People
time for almost everything you buy. But for certainget very emotionally caught up in the stock market
(but wrong) reasons, that's what investors verybecause so much money is at stake. When the
clearly do NOT do when they consider buying into amarket is going up, they get greedy and buy just
business. Well, that's not true. Investors mostbecause they don't want to miss out on easy
certainly do do that when they buy a piece of amoney. And they freak out when the market is
private business like a restaurant or a laundry. Butgoing down and they sell because they are afraid of
they don't do it when they buy a piece of a PUBLIClosing everything.
business - when they buy shares of stock. WhenThe key to great investing is to be rational. To NOT
they buy stock they assume that because there areget caught in the emotion of the moment that's
so many smart people buying the stock that day atsweeping the country. If we can stay rational and
that price, the price must be what its worth. In fact,figure out what a business is worth as a business
in the stock market, EMOTION is huge player.before we buy it, and then buy it for less than its
It's definitely not the uber-rational place its made outworth, we're going to be very successful investors.
to be. Robert Shiller, a Yale economist, made thatNow go play.
very point in his best seller, "Irrational Exhuberance".