| You’ve decided to get started as a trader or | | | | addition, you may think you know which sector a |
| investor, but where do you start? The answer as | | | | share or stock is in, but sometimes they can surprise |
| always is very simple and the process I will take you | | | | you!! |
| through applies to virtually all markets (particularly | | | | It is worth checking on any share or stock that you |
| shares, stocks and derivatives of these i.e. options | | | | are considering as to details of any directors who |
| and spread betting) Once you move into other | | | | have bought or sold shares recently. The software I |
| markets (currency for example) you would have a | | | | use itemises recent deals which you can check. |
| different set of data and charts. | | | | Please do not give any dealings too much weight as |
| One important point to note, is that those of you | | | | directors are notorious for getting things wrong!! - |
| who have full time employment and are just doing | | | | they often buy in a vain attempt to support their |
| this for longer term investment, or to build up | | | | share price, and could well be selling as share options |
| experience, all of the following can be done in the | | | | become available or they have a divorce settlement |
| evenings or at the weekend. You may remember | | | | to pay! If you see several senior directors selling |
| that I have said before, you do not need live data to | | | | heavily then this may be a signal that they know |
| start with - end of day data is fine. You also do not | | | | something that you do not! |
| have to be sitting in front of your screen day after | | | | Check when a company is due to pay its dividends |
| day, in fact it is better if you do not - you will only | | | | and the ex-dividend date. If you buy a share one day |
| become stressed! | | | | before this date then you will be entitled to the |
| OK, I am going to assume that you are going to be | | | | dividend, but if you buy on the day you will not be |
| trading shares/stocks/options or spread betting, | | | | entitled. There is a three day window between the |
| depending on your experience. I suggest that you | | | | ex-dividend date and the date of record. On the date |
| would follow the steps below, to arrive at a short list | | | | of record all eligible shareholders are noted and these |
| of prospects | | | | will be the people who receive the dividend. If you |
| In the evening or overnight, you would download all | | | | are not sure, check on the web site of the company |
| the daily data, and your charts would be updated to | | | | - they should have an 'investor' section which will |
| show the price action for that particular day. If you | | | | detail all past dividends, payment dates, history etc |
| are trading the US markets then the data would | | | | Again, check to see when the company is likely to |
| probably have to be downloaded the following day as | | | | be announcing its results. You do not want to buy |
| the markets only close at 9.00 pm UK time and | | | | the day before the company is due to announce its |
| update overnight. Now the general approach is called | | | | annual performance etc. ( you may consider this a |
| top down investing, because it is just that - we start | | | | good idea - that is fine - all I am saying is make the |
| with the big picture and work down! | | | | decision in the full knowledge of all the facts ). |
| You would start by analysing the major indices for | | | | Trading through announcements can be difficult. In |
| the market you were considering. For the UK you | | | | the US it is particularly difficult as results are |
| would look at the FTSE100 index ( 250 and 350) , for | | | | announced quarterly and almost as soon as one ' |
| the US the DJIA index etc. This will give you a view | | | | earning season' is finished, another one starts. In the |
| of the overall market, strength, weakness, support, | | | | UK it is not quite so bad, with results generally |
| resistance etc. Look at the daily volumes for unusual | | | | announced half-yearly or annually. |
| highs or lows. I would check the charts daily for | | | | On the broader front, keep an eye on the following : |
| volume anomalies. | | | | In the broad economy there are four clear periods to |
| All shares and stocks are divided and sub divided into | | | | the economic cycle. It is important that you try to |
| various industry and market sectors. You need to | | | | recognise where you feel the country is economically. |
| analyse each industry sector chart, for strength and | | | | The four are, full recession, early recovery, full |
| weakness, as well as support and resistance. After | | | | recovery and early recession. As the economy |
| all, it makes sense - you do not want to be buying | | | | moves through this cycle which is repeated, various |
| shares or stocks in a sector of the market which is | | | | market sectors become more important and others |
| particularly weak or selling short in a strong sector. | | | | less. The markets tend to lead the economic cycle. In |
| (Most good charting packages will give you the | | | | early recovery industrial, basic industry and energy |
| facility to chart a share price with its performance | | | | sectors tend to lead, in full recovery staples and |
| against the market sector.) Naturally, there is no | | | | service sectors tend to lead, in early recession utilities |
| guarantee that any share you choose within a sector | | | | and finance sector stocks tend to lead, and finally in |
| which is performing well will guarantee it will follow | | | | full recession cyclical and technology stocks tend to |
| the trend, but it is a reasonable assumption to make | | | | lead the way. Naturally these are only broad |
| as a start. Having identified what we feel are the | | | | guidelines, but it is worth trying to establish where |
| stronger and weaker sectors, then we move on to | | | | the economy is, at any one point, whilst you are |
| look at the shares/stocks themselves. I would | | | | trading. |
| probably only check the sectors once a week. | | | | In trying to arrive at where you feel the economy |
| Understanding and identifying industry and market | | | | may be, listen to the announcements on interest |
| sectors can be notoriously difficult. A good place to | | | | rates etc. You will almost certainly form your own |
| start is often the main exchange where details can | | | | view of the economy from your own experience of |
| usually be found - be aware that these do vary from | | | | house prices, job opportunities, and retail knowledge. |
| country to country and exchange to exchange as | | | | Try to use common sense rather than trying to |
| there does not seem to be any standard in place at | | | | acquire some deep knowledge of facts and figures |
| the moment. | | | | that only economists understand. After all, if they |
| Having downloaded the end of day data, I would | | | | know anything of value they would have retired long |
| then check all my charts. As always, you would look | | | | ago. Try to think in a common sense way. |
| for trends, volume, support and resistance, breakouts | | | | Keep a check on oil prices. This is not normally good |
| from a channel, turning points and candle patterns. | | | | news for the markets, as increased raw commodities |
| You would also consider price movements on the | | | | such as oil, can only increase company’s costs |
| day - the package I use offers the facility to set a | | | | and therefore reduce profitability. Despite this in the |
| filter which identifies shares which have moved up or | | | | last 18 months with oil at record levels, shares have |
| down 2% on the day. A move this size might | | | | continued to move higher. |
| indicate a share that is active. Once you have | | | | Keep an eye on the price of gold, because it can be |
| identified a list of possible prospects, you would then | | | | an indicator of political uncertainty. It can also have a |
| compare them with their sector, to see whether | | | | direct impact on mining stocks (look at oil prices |
| they were in a good sector or not, and how they | | | | recently) |
| were performing relative to the sector. If they | | | | And finally, remember, you are in this to make |
| looked OK, you would add them to your watch list. | | | | money – not for fun. If you are looking for fun |
| Remember that an important part of money | | | | or a thrill, try the on line poker or horse racing. |
| management is to diversify your portfolio - so please | | | | Trading and investing is hard work and is about |
| do not build your portfolio in one sector - this is | | | | making money – not losing it! |
| another reason sector analysis is so important. In | | | | |